Natural gas benchmark fell this summer despite record July heat

What changed

EIA reported Sept. 25 that Henry Hub natural gas spot prices averaged $2.93/MMBtu from June through August 2026, down 6% from the same period in 2025. The agency’s Today in Energy brief is the authoritative record: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68204.

The lower benchmark price came during a hot summer. EIA said exceptionally hot weather increased electricity demand for air conditioning, and that natural gas-fired power plants often help meet higher demand during such periods. The Lower 48 averaged 77°F in July, the warmest July on record for the month, according to NOAA data cited by EIA.

EIA attributed the muted price pressure to several supply and demand factors. Compared with June through August 2025, EIA estimated solar generation rose by 19.4 billion kilowatthours, wind generation rose by 9.3 billion kilowatthours, and natural gas-fired generation rose by 7.5 billion kilowatthours.

On supply, EIA said U.S. natural gas production has set numerous monthly record highs in 2026 and expects dry natural gas production to set a record 111.2 billion cubic feet per day for the year. EIA estimated June through August production was 2%, or 2.7 Bcf/d, higher than in the same period of 2025, with growth supported by several producing regions, most notably the Permian.

What it means for the shop

For HVAC contractors, this is a benchmark fuel-cost signal, not a local utility-bill answer. The EIA brief covers Henry Hub spot prices and national supply conditions. It does not quantify how those wholesale prices pass through to residential gas rates, how long that pass-through takes, or how effects differ by region.

That caveat matters in sales and service conversations. A customer may hear that natural gas prices were lower this summer and ask whether that changes the case for a gas furnace, heat pump, or dual-fuel system. The supplied EIA record does not provide customer-facing economics for those choices, and it does not forecast winter household heating expenditures.

What to watch

Storage is the main concrete winter indicator in the EIA brief. Working natural gas inventories entered the 2026 injection season at 1,906 Bcf, 4% above the previous five-year average. EIA said monthly storage injections were above their respective five-year averages in each injection-season month through August except May.

EIA’s August Short-Term Energy Outlook forecast Lower 48 working natural gas inventories of 3,985 Bcf at the end of October 2026, 5% above the five-year average. The brief says storage provides a supply cushion, but it does not quantify winter price-spike risk or the effects of winter weather and LNG export demand.

The practical next records to watch are EIA’s winter fuel outlooks, Short-Term Energy Outlook updates, and local utility rate filings. Those sources, not the summer Henry Hub average alone, will better support customer conversations about winter gas bills.